Inthispaper,we are concerned with getting well-calibrated predictions in regression tasks. We propose the calibrated regression method using the maximum mean discrepancy by minimizing the kernel embedding measure.

Calibrated probabilistic classifiers are models whose predicted probabilities can directly be interpreted as uncertainty estimates. It has been shown recently that deep neural networks arepoorly calibratedandtend tooutput overconfident predictions.

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate high uncertainty when it is likely to be inaccurate. Uncertainty calibration is a challenging problem as there is no ground truth available for uncertainty estimates. We propose an optimization method that leverages the relationship between accuracy and uncertainty as an anchor for uncertainty calibration. We introduce a differentiable accuracy versus uncertainty calibration (AvUC) loss function that allows a model to learn to provide well-calibrated uncertainties, in addition to improved accuracy. We also demonstrate the same methodology can be extended to post-hoc uncertainty calibration on pretrained models. We illustrate our approach with mean-field stochastic variational inference and compare with state-of-the-art methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate our approach yields better model calibration than existing methods on large-scale image classification tasks under distributional shift.

We introduce a new family of non-linear neural network activation functions that mimic the properties induced by the widely-used Mat\'ern family of kernels in Gaussian process (GP) models.

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of machine-learning models in practice. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This paper investigates the relationship between uncertainty calibration - the alignment of model confidence with actual accuracy - and perturbation-based explanations. We show that models systematically produce unreliable probability estimates when subjected to explainability-specific perturbations and theoretically prove that this directly undermines global and local explanation quality. To address this, we introduce ReCalX, a novel approach to recalibrate models for improved explanations while preserving their original predictions. Empirical evaluations across diverse models and datasets demonstrate that ReCalX consistently reduces perturbation-specific miscalibration most effectively while enhancing explanation robustness and the identification of globally important input features.

Passive acoustic monitoring enables large-scale biodiversity assessment, but reliable classification of bioacoustic sounds requires not only high accuracy but also well-calibrated uncertainty estimates to ground decision-making. In bioacoustics, calibration is challenged by overlapping vocalisations, long-tailed species distributions, and distribution shifts between training and deployment data. The calibration of multi-label deep learning classifiers within the domain of bioacoustics has not yet been assessed. We systematically benchmark the calibration of four state-of-the-art multi-label bird sound classifiers on the BirdSet benchmark, evaluating both global, per-dataset and per-class calibration using threshold-free calibration metrics (ECE, MCS) alongside discrimination metrics (cmAP). Model calibration varies significantly across datasets and classes. While Perch v2 and ConvNeXt$_{BS}$ show better global calibration, results vary between datasets. Both models indicate consistent underconfidence, while AudioProtoPNet and BirdMAE are mostly overconfident. Surprisingly, calibration seems to be better for less frequent classes. Using simple post hoc calibration methods we demonstrate a straightforward way to improve calibration. A small labelled calibration set is sufficient to significantly improve calibration with Platt scaling, while global calibration parameters suffer from dataset variability. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating and improving uncertainty calibration in bioacoustic classifiers.